Purpose and Framing

The AGI Countdown Clock is a symbolic indicator, not a forecast. It is a governance signal that highlights how quickly capability, deployment, and risk are evolving.

Midnight marks the point when machines can perform human-level cognition across domains. We use the clock to structure public discussion around readiness, oversight, and social impact. The goal is clarity, not drama.

Current Reading

11:58 PM - 2 Minute to Midnight.

This research page is the source of truth for the clock value. The public display in edyant.com/agi is updated from this calculation.

Data and Method

Inputs come from the public milestone timeline in github.com/edyant/countdown_to_agi. Each entry provides a year, description, and clock time that anchors the mapping from historical milestones to minutes remaining.

Method

• Convert each milestone time to minutes remaining to midnight.
• Fit a recency-weighted linear regression of minutes remaining versus year, using a 5-year half-life so recent milestones influence the estimate more strongly.
• Compute the estimate for the current year from the regression.
• Cross-check against the recent pace reflected in the timeline.
• Round to the nearest minute, and avoid declaring midnight unless both models fall at or below 0.5 minutes remaining.